You are underestimating the follow on effects. Other oil producers will invest and take over the sales Iran is currently making. Ghana for example. “Control” means avoiding the straight. The world economy will not invest in a path that is constantly unreliable.
After decades of quiet enabled by the Greatest Generation, today’s Americans seem to have forgotten that freedom is never free. The message broadcast to the world with this strategic surrender: When the going gets tough the Americans get lost. Putin heard it loud and clear after the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. And now the CCP is taking detailed notes as it eyes the tasty morsel just across its border. The US obsession with 5$ gas while totally oblivious to the disastrous consequences of a post-Taiwan world is truly remarkable.
Totally disappointed in my fellow Americans. The price of gas crowd combined with the antisemite crowd have been victorious. The democrat socialists have the power and momentum, and they know it. Trump was too weak to stand up to them, at this point in the conflict. Hopefully the next 60 days will bring about one of those miracles that have turned things around for us in the past.
Batya, I have followed your work for many years now and it is obvious that you have a heart as big as the Montana sky (very big) and a sincerity that is truly endearing. The only ones who can unite the American public are the Iranians themselves, specifically the more hardline elements of their government. Only they can foster an act or event that would enrage a majority of our nation. I have every faith they probably will at some point. In the meanwhile, do not lose your heart or soul, or any part of it, to these people, because if you do they will have truly won.
Yes! The only way this was going to work was if the Iranian resistance rose up against the regime, i.e., provided boots on the ground, but, tragically, that did not happen. Batya is terrific, but she has blinkers on to think we could ever win this thing without putting boots on the ground or providing firepower for those already on the ground. It’s not that massive economic catastrophy isn’t taking place, but that the regime has stockpiles of supplies and can wait it out since they don’t care what happens to their people. Finally, it wasn’t fear of mines that closed the Strait. It was Lloyds of London refusing to issue insurance that freaked out the maritime economy. Trump immediately tried to provide U.S. insurance, but I don’t know what happened with that. Commercial ships aren’t going to risk getting blown up. This is a very good cause, which is why I urge patience, not self-flaggelation, nuance over pique.
In less than several years, there will be newly completed pipelines heading in a few directions out of the area, and the Straight will not matter as much.
John, you got to it b/f I did. I believe that some of the Middle East countries are already building pipelines between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Ports in the Gulf of Oman will be free and clear of an Iranian influece. If right the only ships being hit with a duty will be ships carrying Iranain oil. Long-term that is not a good business model to put a duty on the ships carrying your product. It will be interesting to see how this develops.
I agree. They will never stop trying to kill every infidel and country that tries to stop them. Iran is like Nazi Germany. They will not quit until they destroy the West and Israel. Trump started off strong but let politics trump America’s future.
I will do whatever it takes to survive—higher prices, expensive gas—but I’d like for my children and grandchildren to be able to live free of terrorists and the regimes that support them.
Don’t give in to despair. Remember that God is in control. There have been many times during my 60 years on this planet that I have been SURE the US was headed straight down the crapper. Yet here we are, living great lives and prospering. Keep doing what you do and fighting the good fight….it will be okay.
Apart from these concessions to the Iranian regime with no real commitments, we are hearing things about the regime that make John Kerry sound hawkish.
Trump is saying that it's only fair that Iran have ballistic missiles (!).
Does this not cause you to reconsider Trump's character, having enthusiastically championed it for so long, beyond this specific (if egregious) mistake?
Batya, I'm a believer in you, an admirer of your intellect. But I think you've been wrong twice.
First, perhaps you were too quick in supporting the war. All the flaws you cite existed--no public support even sought (no matter how unlikely getting it might have been), no clear articulation (understanding?) of initial goals, etc., etc.
But now I think you're too hasty in reaching conclusions based on a "MOU." I still am inclined to give DJT the benefit of the doubt. I realize he's being torn in two directions, domestic- and foreign-related. People say very correctly that he is totally unqualified to be President of the United States, based on traditional standards. He has little deep state experience, although I believe he's managing it very much better than he did in this first term.
But he is a savvy manager of very big and complex projects, and he's made himself a billionaire. As much as many people find fault with this success I believe it may well qualify him to perceive weaknesses in traditional state-craft and negotiation norms, and to take a new approach to the carrot and stick that actually uses the stick.
I'm waiting...half-hopeful, with baited breath, fingers crossed. Time will tell, especially if he's willing to bomb them "right in the head" as he has threatened to do. One hopeful indication is that he has articulated clearly, for the public, that..."depression is bad, nuclear weapons far worse." So let's wait, test his mettle.
Don’t finance the rebuilding of Iran. Finance the people to overthrow that government. Finance oil pipelines that will make Hormuz irrelevant. Finally if they even look like they’re beginning to resume nuclear bomb making and/or ballistic missle production bomb the living sh$t out of them.
Everybody keeps summarizing a finish to the final chapter of this book. This is not by any means a set piece nor are we privy to what's going on behind closed doors. Obviously if we're not bombing with absolute control of air space, there are significant reasons. To cite CNN and other media sources is laughable.
I sometimes wonder if a modern US with 24-7 cable news had to fight WWII, particularly the European theatre, not having been struck by Germany, would they tolerate the pain. We have lost a few more than a dozen wonderful souls in this effort. And still a few months is too much. In Ca the gas would be expensive anyway because of the removal of refineries. We are now society that, with exceptions, wants everything given. The world wants to come here but most born here are compelled to identify as victims. Are they any credible internal resistance movements to support?
The problem isn't that you got Iran wrong, you put too much faith in a man who is at his heart feckless, narcissistic, egocentric, mercurial and a psycho.
You are underestimating the follow on effects. Other oil producers will invest and take over the sales Iran is currently making. Ghana for example. “Control” means avoiding the straight. The world economy will not invest in a path that is constantly unreliable.
After decades of quiet enabled by the Greatest Generation, today’s Americans seem to have forgotten that freedom is never free. The message broadcast to the world with this strategic surrender: When the going gets tough the Americans get lost. Putin heard it loud and clear after the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. And now the CCP is taking detailed notes as it eyes the tasty morsel just across its border. The US obsession with 5$ gas while totally oblivious to the disastrous consequences of a post-Taiwan world is truly remarkable.
Totally disappointed in my fellow Americans. The price of gas crowd combined with the antisemite crowd have been victorious. The democrat socialists have the power and momentum, and they know it. Trump was too weak to stand up to them, at this point in the conflict. Hopefully the next 60 days will bring about one of those miracles that have turned things around for us in the past.
Batya, I have followed your work for many years now and it is obvious that you have a heart as big as the Montana sky (very big) and a sincerity that is truly endearing. The only ones who can unite the American public are the Iranians themselves, specifically the more hardline elements of their government. Only they can foster an act or event that would enrage a majority of our nation. I have every faith they probably will at some point. In the meanwhile, do not lose your heart or soul, or any part of it, to these people, because if you do they will have truly won.
Yes! The only way this was going to work was if the Iranian resistance rose up against the regime, i.e., provided boots on the ground, but, tragically, that did not happen. Batya is terrific, but she has blinkers on to think we could ever win this thing without putting boots on the ground or providing firepower for those already on the ground. It’s not that massive economic catastrophy isn’t taking place, but that the regime has stockpiles of supplies and can wait it out since they don’t care what happens to their people. Finally, it wasn’t fear of mines that closed the Strait. It was Lloyds of London refusing to issue insurance that freaked out the maritime economy. Trump immediately tried to provide U.S. insurance, but I don’t know what happened with that. Commercial ships aren’t going to risk getting blown up. This is a very good cause, which is why I urge patience, not self-flaggelation, nuance over pique.
In less than several years, there will be newly completed pipelines heading in a few directions out of the area, and the Straight will not matter as much.
John, you got to it b/f I did. I believe that some of the Middle East countries are already building pipelines between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Ports in the Gulf of Oman will be free and clear of an Iranian influece. If right the only ships being hit with a duty will be ships carrying Iranain oil. Long-term that is not a good business model to put a duty on the ships carrying your product. It will be interesting to see how this develops.
I agree. They will never stop trying to kill every infidel and country that tries to stop them. Iran is like Nazi Germany. They will not quit until they destroy the West and Israel. Trump started off strong but let politics trump America’s future.
I will do whatever it takes to survive—higher prices, expensive gas—but I’d like for my children and grandchildren to be able to live free of terrorists and the regimes that support them.
Yes.
Don’t give in to despair. Remember that God is in control. There have been many times during my 60 years on this planet that I have been SURE the US was headed straight down the crapper. Yet here we are, living great lives and prospering. Keep doing what you do and fighting the good fight….it will be okay.
That’s the One.
Is there no soul-searching about Trump himself?
Apart from these concessions to the Iranian regime with no real commitments, we are hearing things about the regime that make John Kerry sound hawkish.
Trump is saying that it's only fair that Iran have ballistic missiles (!).
Does this not cause you to reconsider Trump's character, having enthusiastically championed it for so long, beyond this specific (if egregious) mistake?
Batya, I'm a believer in you, an admirer of your intellect. But I think you've been wrong twice.
First, perhaps you were too quick in supporting the war. All the flaws you cite existed--no public support even sought (no matter how unlikely getting it might have been), no clear articulation (understanding?) of initial goals, etc., etc.
But now I think you're too hasty in reaching conclusions based on a "MOU." I still am inclined to give DJT the benefit of the doubt. I realize he's being torn in two directions, domestic- and foreign-related. People say very correctly that he is totally unqualified to be President of the United States, based on traditional standards. He has little deep state experience, although I believe he's managing it very much better than he did in this first term.
But he is a savvy manager of very big and complex projects, and he's made himself a billionaire. As much as many people find fault with this success I believe it may well qualify him to perceive weaknesses in traditional state-craft and negotiation norms, and to take a new approach to the carrot and stick that actually uses the stick.
I'm waiting...half-hopeful, with baited breath, fingers crossed. Time will tell, especially if he's willing to bomb them "right in the head" as he has threatened to do. One hopeful indication is that he has articulated clearly, for the public, that..."depression is bad, nuclear weapons far worse." So let's wait, test his mettle.
Don’t finance the rebuilding of Iran. Finance the people to overthrow that government. Finance oil pipelines that will make Hormuz irrelevant. Finally if they even look like they’re beginning to resume nuclear bomb making and/or ballistic missle production bomb the living sh$t out of them.
Everybody keeps summarizing a finish to the final chapter of this book. This is not by any means a set piece nor are we privy to what's going on behind closed doors. Obviously if we're not bombing with absolute control of air space, there are significant reasons. To cite CNN and other media sources is laughable.
I sometimes wonder if a modern US with 24-7 cable news had to fight WWII, particularly the European theatre, not having been struck by Germany, would they tolerate the pain. We have lost a few more than a dozen wonderful souls in this effort. And still a few months is too much. In Ca the gas would be expensive anyway because of the removal of refineries. We are now society that, with exceptions, wants everything given. The world wants to come here but most born here are compelled to identify as victims. Are they any credible internal resistance movements to support?
The problem isn't that you got Iran wrong, you put too much faith in a man who is at his heart feckless, narcissistic, egocentric, mercurial and a psycho.
I believe that the MOU amounts to theatre and deception. Evidently, it's working. Have faith in a positive outcome.
You are wrong!
The bombs will fall if they screw up!
Not so fast.
Batya, I continue to suspect Trump has something else up his sleeve.