The Day Marco Rubio Took the Lead

For 2028 watchers, today might end up being a significant one in retrospect.

For the first time today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio overtook Vice President JD Vance in the Kalshi betting market’s odds of who is most likely to become president in 2028.

You can’t take the Kalshi bets too seriously. They are often wrong, especially political prognostications. And 2028 is a long way away. No polls you see today are going to be definitive or even really even significant on their own. But I’m sure I’m not the only person for whom this development reflects my own gut check of where the vibes are headed.

Since President Trump won in 2024, it’s been received wisdom that Vance is in the bag as the 2028 nominee.

I’ve just never bought it.

I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve expressed skepticism about Vance as the heir apparent for 2028 and seen a news host’s mouth drop open. And of course, they have many polls to back up the received wisdom. Vance has been polling way ahead of Rubio all year, and Rubio himself made remarks to a journalist that made it sound like he wouldn’t consider running against Vance.