Israel has been an incredible ally throughout Operation Epic Fury. But while our interests are aligned with those of our great ally, they are by no means identical.
Frankly I think people in the US need to step up and weather the storm. No member of the Islamic Regime is going to be trust worthy regarding no nuclear weapons, missiles and the like. Venezuela is a very different culture. Apples and oranges. A secular leader is our best hope, whoever that may be ( hopefully Reza Pahlavi). I hope Trump sees this through, not to nation build, but to secure a path forward for the Iranian people and to eliminate the present IR in all ways.
We in the United States, must be prepared to make any sacrifice and pay any price to achieve the outcome you define. If you are of the right age, I sincerely hope you are contemplating enlisting in the US military this week so that you can join the fight.
He seems to have been called “…….for such a time as this.”
So far, it appears that Someone far GREATER than DJT or Bibi is in charge. And DJT is far smarter than most have given him credit for…….and the deranged never trumpers are in panic mode. Which is delicious to watch.
For those of us who remember 1979 -- as I do well -- and our hapless peanut farmer President, as well as the slaughter of thousands of Americans by various tentacles of the Ayatollahs in the decades since, we have been at war with Iran for 47 years. It's just that until Trump, we've taken the hits while never offering any significant military response. Sanctions didn't do shit, except to further the suffering of the people.
Which only emboldened the barbarians.
And it's inaccurate to refer to this as "regime change" or "exporting democracy". Before the 1979 revolution Iran was a democratic society. Not an exact Western style to be sure, but the only democracy in the entire Islamic world. It's estimated that up to 80% of Iran's 90M citizens wish to return to this. The murderous Seventh Century regime is what stands in their way.
The trouble is that regime change is really the only acceptable outcome. The regime has to go. Has to. There is no non-insane theocrat with whom we can deal. All of this bombing was for nothing if the regime isn’t completely and utterly removed from the Earth. It doesn’t mean we have to be the ones to oversee what comes next, but the clerics cannot be left in power or we’ll be right back here in a few years.
Trump has already told us that anything less than unconditional surrender will be completely unacceptable. The last time the United States achieved unconditional surrender over military opponents was in World War II with Japan and Germany. Obviously, such unconditional surrender in Iran will require either massive numbers of American boots on the ground, just as we saw in Germany, or the use of nuclear weapons, as we saw in Japan. No level of bloviating from Washington or Tel Aviv will lead to any such thing. All Americans who favor the unconditional surrender of Iran and the establishment of a military government by the United States in that country via a sustained occupation, must be hoping for America to re-commence the military draft so that we can literally double the size of our ground forces.
I will not be shocked if Iran slams a few drones into maritime shipping when it resumes around the Strait of Hormuz. And it will resume now that Lloyd’s of London has agreed to underwrite war risk insurance. I will also not be shocked when US special forces & Marines seize, occupy and control 5 mile long Kharg island, located 15 miles off shore from mainland Iran in response - through which 90% of Iran’s outbound oil flows.
That all could happen. Insurance rates will be sky high and that will get wound in to AFRA (maritime shipping) rates will reflect that, as will CIF costs for delivered crude oil.
But, of course, this is a million miles away from unconditional surrender.
Yes, I work in international supply chains and watching all this in real time. Unconditional surrender to me are just more of Trump hyperbolic words. Art of the deal ways he’s actually followed in action his entire adult life, is more likely, IMO.
This makes sense, yet I’m not optimistic: there are so many unknowns.
I’m afraid we’re prone to romanticizing the vocal opposition just as we did in Iraq. We don’t know the depth of support for the Islamic Republican, nor the durability of its psychological infrastructure. We are likely overestimating the persuasive power of bombs from above.
We cannot estimate the breadth of resentment over the attack on their country by the US and particularly Israel.
Getting a new government in place, let alone one that forswears the development of a nuclear bomb seems hardly the work of a few weeks.
I hope I’m wrong but the massive bombing campaign may prove to have been the easy part.
Indeed, we do not know the depth of support for the Islamic Republican inside of Iran. We do know that there is a substantial desire to throw off the Islamic/Islamist yoke, but, unfortunately, it may very well be that 30,000 of the most dedicated anti-regime activists were murdered in January.
Since 1979, there have been 2 generations of Iranians marinating in the radical ideology of Islamism, from cradle to grave. Is it reasonable to hope that there are Winston Smiths among them who can escape their mental cage? And not get shot?
In any case, I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Persian civilization deserves better than what the mullahs can ever offer it.
The Islamic regime, unlike a majority of people in Iran, possesses a religious zeal to destroy Israel. Not liberate Palestine. Destroy Israel. Its initial plan was to use nuclear weapons and considered Israel a one bomb country. Even if Israel retaliated with nuclear bombs, there would still be an Iran and plenty of regime loyalists throughout the country went the fallout cleared.
The Islamic regime has developed an excellent drone capability to overwhelm an adversary with relatively inexpensive weapons that cause both damage and force the use of more expensive defensive weapons. Are we ready to bomb Iran into submission like we did with Japan? Probably not.
Unless the regime either falls or changes its priorities, expect the Iran issue to come up every few years. The Islamic regime is patient and willing to take civilian causalities. We've seen it shoot thousands of its own people. We're not patient. The regime may be able to wait us out.
It seems the Iranian Mullahs and their followers have the same irrational, messianic goals bent on worldwide harm as that German dictator in power from 1932 - 1945. They're so fanatical that it was impossible to reason with him and his followers, i.e., when the Iranians told Trump's negotiators Iran had the nuclear materials to build 10 - 11 bombs, despite the destruction the US and Israel carried out last June, and despite Trump's offer to exile them to a safe 3rd nation, what choice did Trump have?
Good column. I think it's clear that Israel is seeking regime change and a democratic Iran. We are more concerned with ending the Iranian nuclear enrichment program and, to a lesser extent, ending Iranian support for terrorist groups in the region. A military dictatorship led by the IRGC that gives up enrichment and allows intrusive inspections would meet that goal. Ending the clerics rule including their obsession with repressing women may even make such a regime more acceptable to Iranians. Ironically, a democratic Iran may immediately recognize Israel but still insist on keeping a nuclear program. They will be nationalists, and there are a lot of nuclear countries in the neighborhood to deter.
Every accusation from the goitards is a confession and projection of goitardian degeneracy
Cursed dry humping it's day away being a degenerate goitard
You bring filth and stupidity to adult conversations as you illustrate your cursed condition thus bestowing blessings bounty virtue truth and beauty upon the eternal Nation 🇮🇱🗽🇮🇱🗽
What contributes most to your irrationality, your sex or your menopause or your period or are on or off your meds ?
More likely all of the above in addition to Trump Israel Netanyahu or the Western mouthy know-it-all Karen's desire to have a repressive Islamic Republic be enabled for another 47 years to repress its people?
Nation building as attempted in Iraq is unconnected with regime change. The US carried out effective regime changes in Latin America until the 1960s without any of the complications of Iraq, simply because it replaced a hostile ruler with a pro-American one, not necessarily a democracy.
"Somoza may be a son of a bitch but he's our son of a bitch" is how FDR put it (in reference to 1930s Nicaragua).
Viewed in this way, regime change in Iran has none of the pitfalls of Iraq, where the US not only toppled the existing dictator but then occupied the entire country in a failed effort to create a modern Western democracy. Finding an existing Iraqi Sunni general willing to work for the US would have been a better and easier approach.
And trust President Trump to be fully aware of the mistakes in Iraq: last year he began a bombing campaign against the Houthis. When it failed to make progress, he quit after a few weeks.
There is an added issue this time: the Gulf Arabs, including Muslim Brotherhood sponsor Qatar, have been furious at Iran for its attacks on them and issued incandescent official statements condemning Iran. They will not trust a US alliance much if it leaves them to deal with a wounded Islamic Republic in the long-term. Gulf Arabs are not allies that the US would want to lose.
Isn't "pro-American Islamic Republic" an oxymoron?
When you break down the support for the war further (based on potential lengths), you see exactly the pattern Batya is describing - overwhelming support for an action that lasts days/weeks with a steep drop-off. Given that, if Trump loses the midterms, the Democrats are almost certain to impeach him for the hat trick; he needs to not only win this war, but he also needs to win it quickly.
As Batya says in her article, this is a source of strategic division. The Israelis are interested in the DEPTH of the outcome; the Americans are more interested in the SPEED of victory, and willing to accept more potential concessions on the outcome if it means moving up the timeline.
This has strategic implications, as the Israelis are much more willing to slow things down to be deliberate than the Americans can afford to be for political reasons. However, Israel should be sensitive to the political concerns of the Americans in this case, since an American electorate swing towards the Dems would also undermine the mission entirely.
Once we have neutralized their missile and drone capacities, look for us to seize Kharg Island and take over their oil sales like we have with Venezuela.
Here is what I don’t understand. Even commentators I respect are repeating the canard that Trump didn’t prepare the country for this war. I just heard this from the mouth of Leland Vittert. But it seems to me that Trump stretched out the negotiation with Iran far beyond his several deadlines. The whole time he gave Iran warnings and explained to us what was at stake. I was thinking that he was stalling, giving Iran more than a fair chance to come to terms. Then finally he pulled the trigger and the specific objectives were made clear.
Frankly I think people in the US need to step up and weather the storm. No member of the Islamic Regime is going to be trust worthy regarding no nuclear weapons, missiles and the like. Venezuela is a very different culture. Apples and oranges. A secular leader is our best hope, whoever that may be ( hopefully Reza Pahlavi). I hope Trump sees this through, not to nation build, but to secure a path forward for the Iranian people and to eliminate the present IR in all ways.
We in the United States, must be prepared to make any sacrifice and pay any price to achieve the outcome you define. If you are of the right age, I sincerely hope you are contemplating enlisting in the US military this week so that you can join the fight.
My bet goes to President Trump.
He seems to have been called “…….for such a time as this.”
So far, it appears that Someone far GREATER than DJT or Bibi is in charge. And DJT is far smarter than most have given him credit for…….and the deranged never trumpers are in panic mode. Which is delicious to watch.
For those of us who remember 1979 -- as I do well -- and our hapless peanut farmer President, as well as the slaughter of thousands of Americans by various tentacles of the Ayatollahs in the decades since, we have been at war with Iran for 47 years. It's just that until Trump, we've taken the hits while never offering any significant military response. Sanctions didn't do shit, except to further the suffering of the people.
Which only emboldened the barbarians.
And it's inaccurate to refer to this as "regime change" or "exporting democracy". Before the 1979 revolution Iran was a democratic society. Not an exact Western style to be sure, but the only democracy in the entire Islamic world. It's estimated that up to 80% of Iran's 90M citizens wish to return to this. The murderous Seventh Century regime is what stands in their way.
And the Brits,have been grifting off us for over 100 years.
The trouble is that regime change is really the only acceptable outcome. The regime has to go. Has to. There is no non-insane theocrat with whom we can deal. All of this bombing was for nothing if the regime isn’t completely and utterly removed from the Earth. It doesn’t mean we have to be the ones to oversee what comes next, but the clerics cannot be left in power or we’ll be right back here in a few years.
Trump has already told us that anything less than unconditional surrender will be completely unacceptable. The last time the United States achieved unconditional surrender over military opponents was in World War II with Japan and Germany. Obviously, such unconditional surrender in Iran will require either massive numbers of American boots on the ground, just as we saw in Germany, or the use of nuclear weapons, as we saw in Japan. No level of bloviating from Washington or Tel Aviv will lead to any such thing. All Americans who favor the unconditional surrender of Iran and the establishment of a military government by the United States in that country via a sustained occupation, must be hoping for America to re-commence the military draft so that we can literally double the size of our ground forces.
I will not be shocked if Iran slams a few drones into maritime shipping when it resumes around the Strait of Hormuz. And it will resume now that Lloyd’s of London has agreed to underwrite war risk insurance. I will also not be shocked when US special forces & Marines seize, occupy and control 5 mile long Kharg island, located 15 miles off shore from mainland Iran in response - through which 90% of Iran’s outbound oil flows.
That all could happen. Insurance rates will be sky high and that will get wound in to AFRA (maritime shipping) rates will reflect that, as will CIF costs for delivered crude oil.
But, of course, this is a million miles away from unconditional surrender.
Yes, I work in international supply chains and watching all this in real time. Unconditional surrender to me are just more of Trump hyperbolic words. Art of the deal ways he’s actually followed in action his entire adult life, is more likely, IMO.
It’s good to get input from someone like you who has his head in the real world rather than political dream space. Thanks!!
Thank you Batya for another insightful and informed analysis.
The salient difference between Batya and garden variety "journalists:"
Batya considers, gathers, weighs and contemplates the facts. Then puts out a deliberate article.
The rest scribble knee jerk fever dreams between tokes.
This makes sense, yet I’m not optimistic: there are so many unknowns.
I’m afraid we’re prone to romanticizing the vocal opposition just as we did in Iraq. We don’t know the depth of support for the Islamic Republican, nor the durability of its psychological infrastructure. We are likely overestimating the persuasive power of bombs from above.
We cannot estimate the breadth of resentment over the attack on their country by the US and particularly Israel.
Getting a new government in place, let alone one that forswears the development of a nuclear bomb seems hardly the work of a few weeks.
I hope I’m wrong but the massive bombing campaign may prove to have been the easy part.
I (grudgingly) share your semi-grim assessment.
Indeed, we do not know the depth of support for the Islamic Republican inside of Iran. We do know that there is a substantial desire to throw off the Islamic/Islamist yoke, but, unfortunately, it may very well be that 30,000 of the most dedicated anti-regime activists were murdered in January.
Since 1979, there have been 2 generations of Iranians marinating in the radical ideology of Islamism, from cradle to grave. Is it reasonable to hope that there are Winston Smiths among them who can escape their mental cage? And not get shot?
In any case, I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Persian civilization deserves better than what the mullahs can ever offer it.
The Islamic regime, unlike a majority of people in Iran, possesses a religious zeal to destroy Israel. Not liberate Palestine. Destroy Israel. Its initial plan was to use nuclear weapons and considered Israel a one bomb country. Even if Israel retaliated with nuclear bombs, there would still be an Iran and plenty of regime loyalists throughout the country went the fallout cleared.
The Islamic regime has developed an excellent drone capability to overwhelm an adversary with relatively inexpensive weapons that cause both damage and force the use of more expensive defensive weapons. Are we ready to bomb Iran into submission like we did with Japan? Probably not.
Unless the regime either falls or changes its priorities, expect the Iran issue to come up every few years. The Islamic regime is patient and willing to take civilian causalities. We've seen it shoot thousands of its own people. We're not patient. The regime may be able to wait us out.
It seems the Iranian Mullahs and their followers have the same irrational, messianic goals bent on worldwide harm as that German dictator in power from 1932 - 1945. They're so fanatical that it was impossible to reason with him and his followers, i.e., when the Iranians told Trump's negotiators Iran had the nuclear materials to build 10 - 11 bombs, despite the destruction the US and Israel carried out last June, and despite Trump's offer to exile them to a safe 3rd nation, what choice did Trump have?
Are the American people so nieve that all it takes to win or lose an election is the price of gas? I sincerely hope not. There are bigger issues!
Good column. I think it's clear that Israel is seeking regime change and a democratic Iran. We are more concerned with ending the Iranian nuclear enrichment program and, to a lesser extent, ending Iranian support for terrorist groups in the region. A military dictatorship led by the IRGC that gives up enrichment and allows intrusive inspections would meet that goal. Ending the clerics rule including their obsession with repressing women may even make such a regime more acceptable to Iranians. Ironically, a democratic Iran may immediately recognize Israel but still insist on keeping a nuclear program. They will be nationalists, and there are a lot of nuclear countries in the neighborhood to deter.
I don’t give a fuck what Israel wants. or Trump
What a coincidence! I don't give a fuck what *you* want!
Now, that's progress!
T a r d
Every accusation from the goitards is a confession and projection of goitardian degeneracy
Cursed dry humping it's day away being a degenerate goitard
You bring filth and stupidity to adult conversations as you illustrate your cursed condition thus bestowing blessings bounty virtue truth and beauty upon the eternal Nation 🇮🇱🗽🇮🇱🗽
🦨Go back to goitardia🦨
https://substack.com/@thatdude1/note/c-225232380?r=36c3b5
True a he’s obviously less than a retard just a tard
What contributes most to your irrationality, your sex or your menopause or your period or are on or off your meds ?
More likely all of the above in addition to Trump Israel Netanyahu or the Western mouthy know-it-all Karen's desire to have a repressive Islamic Republic be enabled for another 47 years to repress its people?
You want to eat her rag putz
Go back to goitardia 🐑💨
I smell toxic mangina gooner+ smegma through the internet on this one😖 🦨🏳️🌈🖤🧑🏼🦯🤡🐖🐍🤡🦄😝
Why do 🌈 loser 🦄 degenerates 🥷🏼always include 🗽 in their names when they are anti-logic? 😝👊🏼🪤
Go back to goitardia 🐖💨
Sub stack is for smart people 🤷🏼♂️ go back to tt with your gooning sock Goi'tardery epitomized 😝
https://substack.com/@thatdude1/note/c-225232380?r=36c3b5
Infant
I hope you're right Batya - thanks for your analysis...
Nation building as attempted in Iraq is unconnected with regime change. The US carried out effective regime changes in Latin America until the 1960s without any of the complications of Iraq, simply because it replaced a hostile ruler with a pro-American one, not necessarily a democracy.
"Somoza may be a son of a bitch but he's our son of a bitch" is how FDR put it (in reference to 1930s Nicaragua).
Viewed in this way, regime change in Iran has none of the pitfalls of Iraq, where the US not only toppled the existing dictator but then occupied the entire country in a failed effort to create a modern Western democracy. Finding an existing Iraqi Sunni general willing to work for the US would have been a better and easier approach.
And trust President Trump to be fully aware of the mistakes in Iraq: last year he began a bombing campaign against the Houthis. When it failed to make progress, he quit after a few weeks.
There is an added issue this time: the Gulf Arabs, including Muslim Brotherhood sponsor Qatar, have been furious at Iran for its attacks on them and issued incandescent official statements condemning Iran. They will not trust a US alliance much if it leaves them to deal with a wounded Islamic Republic in the long-term. Gulf Arabs are not allies that the US would want to lose.
Isn't "pro-American Islamic Republic" an oxymoron?
When you break down the support for the war further (based on potential lengths), you see exactly the pattern Batya is describing - overwhelming support for an action that lasts days/weeks with a steep drop-off. Given that, if Trump loses the midterms, the Democrats are almost certain to impeach him for the hat trick; he needs to not only win this war, but he also needs to win it quickly.
As Batya says in her article, this is a source of strategic division. The Israelis are interested in the DEPTH of the outcome; the Americans are more interested in the SPEED of victory, and willing to accept more potential concessions on the outcome if it means moving up the timeline.
This has strategic implications, as the Israelis are much more willing to slow things down to be deliberate than the Americans can afford to be for political reasons. However, Israel should be sensitive to the political concerns of the Americans in this case, since an American electorate swing towards the Dems would also undermine the mission entirely.
Once we have neutralized their missile and drone capacities, look for us to seize Kharg Island and take over their oil sales like we have with Venezuela.
Here is what I don’t understand. Even commentators I respect are repeating the canard that Trump didn’t prepare the country for this war. I just heard this from the mouth of Leland Vittert. But it seems to me that Trump stretched out the negotiation with Iran far beyond his several deadlines. The whole time he gave Iran warnings and explained to us what was at stake. I was thinking that he was stalling, giving Iran more than a fair chance to come to terms. Then finally he pulled the trigger and the specific objectives were made clear.
These cowards did nothing for years , they are inconsequential now